Episode Notes

Think you can guess where house prices (NZ) are headed based on what happened last year? Think again.In this episode, we reveal why using last year’s prices to predict next year’s market is one of the most common – and costly – mistakes investors make.We dig into the data to show whether good years really follow good years … and what actually happens next.

You’ll learn:

• How often property prices really go up

• Why the past is a poor predictor of the future

• The data behind short-term property market randomness

• What Palmerston North can teach us about recency bias

• Why smart investors never rely on headlines alone

This is a wake-up call to stop investing with the rear-view mirror and start looking through the windscreen instead.

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