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Episode Notes

Most Kiwis watch the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to guess where interest rates are heading. But there’s another number that actually drives your mortgage rates day to day.

In this episode, Ed and Andrew go full nerd-mode to explain how swap rates work, why banks care about them, and how you can use them to predict future mortgage cuts (or hikes).

You’ll learn:

  • What swap rates are and why they matter more than you think

  • How GDP shocks and economic surprises cause swap rates to drop

  • A simple rule of thumb to see where mortgage rates could be heading next

If you’ve ever wondered why banks don’t instantly follow OCR announcements, this episode connects the dots and shows you where to find the real data.

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