Super Rugby preview: Will there be an upset in round three?

If there’s anything I’ve learned over the first two weeks of Super Rugby is that the 2026 season is totally unpredictable.

But that won’t stop me from trying to pick the results, so here’s who I think will come out on top in week three.

MOANA PASIFIKA v FORCE, Pukekohe, 7.05pm, Friday

Tana Umaga’s team have run hot and cold in the opening two rounds, upsetting the Drua in Fiji before being belted by the Hurricanes in Wellington.

The Force are simply awful, losing both of their home games to the Brumbies and Blues, and you get the feeling another loss will consign them to the wooden-spoon.

The two teams have played four times before with the Western Australian side claiming three victories, but I’m picking Moana to come out on top.

Prediction: Moana Pasifika 1-12

REDS v HIGHLANDERS, Bribane, 9.35pm, Friday

After a win over the Crusaders and a loss to the Chiefs at home, it’s time for the Highlanders to hit the road.

Brisbane hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for the Southern Men, picking up just four wins there since Super Rugby began 30 years ago.

Waiting for them is a Reds side fresh off a bye, and they welcome back Wallabies captain Harry Wilson at number eight with a talented backline behind him.

The Landers are plucky but this might be a bit too tough.

Prediction: Reds 1-12

FIJIAN DRUA v HURRICANES, Lautoka, 4.35pm, Saturday

Churchill Park has been a graveyard for visiting Super Rugby teams in previous seasons but Moana Pasifika showed in week one that the Drua can be beaten there.

The Hurricanes were impressive in their first outing against Moana last week with Callum Harkin slotting into first-five, unleashing their potent outside backs.

The Drua will be desperate for a W after going oh-and-two to start the season, but if the Canes can handle the heat, they should be comfortable winners.

Prediction: Hurricanes 13+

CHIEFS v CRUSADERS, Hamilton, 7.05pm, Saturday

I’ve already pushed the panic button for the Crusaders after they were upset by the Highlanders in Dunedin and then embarrassed by the Brumbies in Christchurch.

There’ll be no sympathy from a Chiefs team who’ve lost two of the last three finals to the red ‘n blacks and are unbeaten despite not hitting their straps.

Two key players are out for this contest: no Codie Taylor for the Saders and new dad Damian McKenzie’s still out for the Chiefs.

The Chiefs are strong favourites and should win, but not by much.

Prediction: Chiefs 1-12

BRUMBIES v BLUES, Canberra, 9.35pm, Saturday

The Brumbies deserve their place on top of the Super Rugby table and will still be on a high after their first triumph in Christchurch since 2000.

But the Blues have stayed in Australia since their victory over the Force in Perth and have plenty to play for in departing skipper Dalton Papali’i’s 100th game.

The form book would suggest the Brumbies win this, but with a six-day turnaround and a Blues team going under the radar, I’m picking an upset.

Prediction: Blues 1-12