New Zealand
'Direct risk to the public': Prison population to increase 35% over next decade


Published by Ben Goldson
15 Jun 2026
The latest annual report from the Ministry of Justice predicts New Zealand’s prison population will grow by 35% over the next ten years.
It’s a situation which has drawn some concern from the Corrections Association, which represents the workers tasked with managing the penal system. Speaking to rova, President Floyd du Plessis says they’re already struggling with capacity
We're running dangerously low at the moment. We're constantly seeing situations where prisoners are having to be moved to areas where they ideally wouldn't be.
"This projected growth is going to need to see a large-scale increase in available beds.”
As he explains, overcrowded prisons lead to a range of issues, not just for the inmates and the staff, but also for the general public:
“It creates a lot of tension. You can't just put them all in a room and expect them to get along.
Ideally, in terms of general operation, we need at least 10% of beds to be empty so that we can manage people and move them around as things happen.
"We also need to understand that risk on release is a major factor at the moment. Prisoners aren’t getting access to rehabilitation, and the reality is that they’re all getting released sooner or later.
"As a result, you get unrehabilitated prisoners being introduced back into society without the tools to stay out of prison, and that unfortunately creates a massive risk for the public.”
Pointing to examples overseas, du Plessis warns that, if unaddressed, the situation could force authorities to start releasing some prisoners before the end of their sentence:
“It's happened in the UK, it's currently happening in parts of Australia at the moment, where there's the same situation of overcrowding and understaffing. That is a direct risk to the public.”

Published by Ben Goldson
15 Jun 2026