Alright, NRL fans, it’s crunch time! Nine weeks left in the regular season and the race to the playoffs is on in a BIG way. If you’re hoping for your team to crack the top four, the push has to start now – no ifs, no buts, no second chances. Every game counts, every set matters. Is the current top four set in stone, or could there still be a twist? Time to get your scarfs and jerseys ready, because this ride will be wild.
Let’s get straight to the team most Kiwis are watching: the Warriors. With 10 wins from 15, and nine games left, they’ll need six more to hit that magic 16, which has been the mark needed the last four years for teams to finish fourth or higher. In the Covid-impacted 2020 season, the Sydney Roosters won 14, but only lost six... a win rate of 70 per cent. The Warriors have currently won two thirds of their games.
Here’s the good news for the Wahs faithful – the schedule could hardly have played out better. With match-ups against the Wests Tigers, Newcastle Knights, Dragons, Parramatta Eels, and two against the Gold Coast Titans, the path is right in front of them. No outrageous hot streak needed, just reliability and focus. Take care of business in those must-win games against very beatable opponents, and the top four is well within reach.
The Brisbane Broncos and Penrith Panthers are lurking though, both on four-match winning runs, and both boasting the cattle to make a run ahead of the finals series. The Panthers need no introduction as the four-time defending NRL premiers, and their form is turning at just the right time. The Broncos on the other hand are arguably the competition’s most hot and cold team, but on their day they’re lethal – as the Warriors found out just under two weeks ago.
Brisbane is four points back in fifth, with Penrith a further point back in sixth. But the Warriors shouldn't worry about those around them - all that matters is their own job at hand. It’s in their control. Lock in wins at home, keep the composure, and a second finals appearance in three years - something that is not too common for this club and its fans - becomes reality.
Further up the table, the Canberra Raiders look a sure thing – a 14-3 record, with seven wins on the trot. Realistically, they just need a couple more from their final batch of games, and they are home and hosed. Raiders fans, you can probably start thinking about finals ticket bookings.
Chasing Canberra are the Melbourne Storm and Canterbury Bulldogs, both with 11 wins. That magic number is five from their remaining nine. Melbourne’s got coach Craig Bellamy masterminding from the box and a squad built for the grind, while the Dogs are packed with firepower and attitude. Both will fancy their chances to close it out.
Outside the top six, the likes of the Dolphins, Manly Sea Eagles, Sydney Roosters, and Cronulla Sharks are all clinging to hope, but the maths is merciless. For any of them to surge into the top four 4, it’d take flawless footy from here out – virtually winning all their respective fixtures – which it's fair to say, is unlikely to happen.
So what does it take for those on the fringe? The Broncos have talent all across the park, but need steel, nerve, and a sliver of luck. Penrith’s big guns would have to be almost superhuman to pull it off. For the Roosters, Sharks – among others – they would need almost too much to go their way.
What I’m trying to say is, worry not Warriors numptees – while it’s possible the club gets run down, their destiny is in their hands. Win the winnable games, and a top four spot is theirs. The time is now - let's get it done!
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