National broke its promise: the state is bigger than ever

National broke its promise: the state is bigger than ever

National ran on discipline. They promised voters a government that would shrink the bureaucracy, cut spending, and force Wellington to deliver more with less. It was a clear mandate. They won power on the back of it.

And then they did the opposite.

The public service grew 1.6% in the last year. Not shrank — grew. Full-time staff hit 63,657. This under a government that told us they'd take the axe to bloat. That's not a rounding error. That's drift. That's a failure of nerve.

David Seymour sees it too. He has to live inside this coalition and fight for the cuts that National won't make on their own. When I asked him about the numbers, he was diplomatic but didn't hide the frustration. "The Act party campaigned on reducing it back to the levels that Labour inherited before they expanded it," he said. He pointed to reductions over the full three-year term, noting some frontline staff like prison guards were added, which disguised deeper cuts to bureaucracy. But even he admits: "I fully take your point."

That's politician speak for: you're right, we haven't done enough.

National voters expected more spine

The question is simple: why didn't National do what they said they would? They had the mandate. They had the majority. They had the chance to reset the size and cost of government.

Seymour has been dragging this government toward discipline. He's saved $14 billion through Act policies, by his count. That's $57,000 per Act voter. He's doing the work. But when I pushed him on whether National resisted deeper cuts, he wouldn't break cabinet confidence. He didn't need to. "We're there to make reductions," he said. "And if the reductions aren't happening, it must be because there's some other factor."

The other factor is National.

They talked tough. They governed soft. And now the state is not just bigger than when they took office — it's bigger than when Jacinda Ardern took office. The Ministry of Social Development is up 2.6%. Inland Revenue up 2.8%. The Ministry of Education up 3.7%. Education was supposed to shed 2,700 staff. It's pushing 4,000. These aren't emergency hires. This is business as usual.

National voters didn't sign up for this. They wanted accountability, not continuity. They wanted reform, not management. And now they're looking around wondering where to park their vote next time.

The problem starts at the top

Seymour floated something at Act's state of the nation that makes more sense the longer you sit with it. He thinks the bloat starts at the very top — with too many ministers holding too many portfolios over too many departments. "Some departments are answerable to 23 different ministers," he said. "Some ministers have seven different portfolios." That's the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment he's talking about. Five ministers aren't even involved in running it.

What does that look like in practice? Nobody owns the outcome. Everybody has a slice of responsibility, so nobody has full accountability. "Everybody is and nobody is responsible for everything and nothing," Seymour said. That's the system. That's why cuts don't happen. That's why spending balloons even when the rhetoric is about restraint.

His solution is brutal and necessary: 20 cabinet ministers, no more than 30 portfolios, one minister per department. "One minister, one department, one budget, one purpose, results in return for taxpayer money," he said. That's how you force discipline. That's how you make someone own the spending and the outcomes.

It's also the kind of reform National should have championed themselves. Instead, they've maintained the sprawling executive they inherited. Seymour is leading where they won't.

The cost of all this is real

This isn't just about tidy books or bureaucratic efficiency. It's about the economy. Core government spending is now 32.5% of GDP. The healthy benchmark is 25%. Total economic activity tied to government is 43%. That means nearly half of what happens in this country depends on the state. The public sector grew 10.9% over five years. The private sector grew 3.7%.

That's not balance. That's crowding out. That's an economy that taxes and spends rather than builds and grows.

And now we're facing a fuel crisis that could blow a $400 million hole in the budget if the petrol relief runs for a full year. Seymour was clear: "If we lose our discipline, then we risk putting our credit rating at risk." He supports Nicola Willis's $2.4 billion cap. But he'd go further. He always would. That's the difference between Act and National. One party believes in the reset. The other manages the status quo.

National had its chance. They were handed a clear mandate to shrink the state, cut waste, and force government to live within its means. They didn't take it. They expanded the bureaucracy, maintained the spending, and let the expectations they created collapse under the weight of their own inaction. Voters notice. They always do.

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