Martin Devlin: The Springboks Are Favourites. And They’ve Earned It

Let’s be real. The Springboks are favourites.

Now, before anyone reaches for the comments section, hear me out.

Do I want the All Blacks to win this series? Absolutely. By kickoff in Johannesburg, I’ll be convinced they can win. In fact, I’ll believe they will win.

That’s what being an All Blacks supporter is all about. Every test match starts with hope. Even after a loss, you back your team to bounce back.

That’s what being an All Blacks supporter is all about. Every test match starts with hope. Even after a loss, you back your team to bounce back.

Historically, that’s exactly what they’ve done.

The All Blacks have never made a habit of losing consecutive tests. Sure, it has happened more often over the past few years:

2020: Australia, then Argentina2021: Ireland, then France2022: Ireland twice, then South Africa2023: South Africa, then France2024: South Africa twice

But that’s still the exception, not the rule.

And this current All Blacks side? I genuinely think they’re improving.

There’s a confidence growing around this team, and you could feel it after the Ireland series. It was there in the body language, the press conferences and the way the players carried themselves.

It wasn’t arrogance. It was belief.

It feels like the All Blacks are starting to rediscover some of the swagger we’ve associated with the black jersey for generations.

But none of that wins you a test match.

Words don’t score tries. Confidence doesn’t stop a rolling maul.

When these two teams run onto the field, only one thing matters: who is the better team?

Right now, it’s South Africa.

That’s not disrespecting New Zealand. It’s respecting what the Springboks have built.

There are four reasons why South Africa deserve to start this series as favourites.

1. Home advantage

Home advantage is real. It’s not an excuse and it’s not a cliché. It’s a proven sporting fact.

Whether it’s rugby, football, cricket, basketball or the NFL, teams generally perform better at home.

There are plenty of reasons for that. Familiarity matters. Travel takes its toll. Altitude matters. Crowd noise makes communication difficult. And 60,000 people wearing your colours can give you an extra gear.

The Springboks don’t just play at home. They make home uncomfortable for everybody else.

That’s a genuine advantage.

2. Player power

Right now, in August 2026, South Africa probably have the strongest playing roster in world rugby.

This isn’t about disrespecting the All Blacks. It’s about acknowledging excellence.

Their squad is packed with World Cup winners, and many of them have won two. They’ve won Rugby Championships, Lions series, World Cups and just about everything else there is to win.

More importantly, they’re not relying on one great generation. They’re three, sometimes four, players deep in almost every position.

The same goes for the coaching staff. They’re proven and they’ve won at the highest level.

The All Blacks have world-class players too, and Dave Rennie has assembled an exciting coaching group. But compared with South Africa, they’re still building, still evolving and still proving themselves.

If someone picked a World XV today, it would probably feature more Springboks than All Blacks. That’s simply where world rugby sits right now.

And let’s not forget the last time these sides met.

South Africa won 43-10, the worst defeat in All Blacks history.

That result doesn’t define this team, but it does remind us how high the Springboks’ ceiling really is.

3. Recent results

The numbers don’t lie.

South Africa have won eleven tests in a row and beaten every major nation that matters over the past year, including England, Ireland, France, Scotland, Wales and New Zealand.

Week after week, they’ve produced performances worthy of world champions.

Meanwhile, the All Blacks lost three tests last season, against Argentina, South Africa and England.

Now, yes, this feels like a different New Zealand side. There are new coaches, new combinations and new energy.

But potential only becomes reality when you beat elite opposition.

The All Blacks have started 2026 really well. They’re improving every week, and that’s exciting.

But if we’re comparing résumés, South Africa still hold every card.

4. There’s more to come

This one actually comes from Dave Rennie himself.

He’s said repeatedly over the past few weeks that this All Blacks side is nowhere near the finished product, that there’s plenty more left in the tank, and that this tour is about winning but also about learning.

Because while this series is massive, everyone inside both camps knows there’s an even bigger date circled on the calendar.

The Rugby World Cup.

These teams are almost certain to meet again, probably in the Rugby Championship and very possibly in a World Cup quarter-final that could define both nations.

So whatever happens over these next four tests, the lessons may end up being just as valuable as the results.

As Winston Churchill famously said: “This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

That’s where this All Blacks team feels like it is. Growing, learning, building and preparing for something even bigger.

South Africa have earned favouritism

So why are South Africa favourites?

Because they’ve earned it.

Not through reputation. Not through history.

Through performance, consistency and winning.

That’s how favouritism should work.

But here’s the beautiful thing about sport. Being favourites doesn’t guarantee anything, and being underdogs certainly doesn’t mean you can’t win.

That’s why we’ll all be watching.

Because somewhere over the next four tests, one of rugby’s greatest rivalries will write another unforgettable chapter.

And I can’t wait.