Luxon’s Three Steps to Survive, If He Has the Spine to Take Them

Christopher Luxon is under pressure. His caucus is leaking. His polling is flat. And after more than a year of steady decline, National MPs are finally saying out loud what voters worked out months ago: the Prime Minister isn't cutting through.

The question now isn't whether he's in trouble. It's whether he's capable of doing what's required to get out of it.

I don't believe he's the right leader. I've said that before. But National has failed to find the courage or the numbers to replace him, so we're stuck with what we've got. If Luxon is going to survive, let alone win the next election, he needs to stop managing and start leading. That means taking three concrete steps, starting now.

Crush the dissent and show you're the boss

First, he needs to deal with the caucus revolt. Not quietly. Not gently. Publicly.

Name the MPs who've been backgrounding against him. Parade them in front of the party. Strip them of portfolios and dump them to the bottom of the rankings. Make it clear what disloyalty looks like and what it costs.

This is what Helen Clark did. Her caucus lived in fear of her, and it worked. Discipline matters in politics, especially when you're already down in the polls. If Luxon can't control his own team, voters won't trust him to control the country.

The problem is he's already backpedalling. Yesterday he tried to minimise it, saying it was just five grumpy MPs. Then he walked that back. That's hopeless. It doesn't inspire confidence. It makes him look weak.

Voters respond to strength. They want a leader who draws lines, enforces them, and doesn't blink when challenged. If Luxon can't do that today, in his own caucus meeting, then he's finished.

Launch a full scale attack on Labour’s record

Second, he needs to go hard on the economy and remind New Zealanders what a Labour Green government would actually mean.

Blame the previous government like never before. Sixty billion dollars borrowed and spent. What did we get for it? Nothing. Highlight the Greens' $88 billion in new taxes. Scare people. Make them understand that if they think things are tough now, imagine what interest rates and inflation would look like under Hipkins.

Then get specific. Rip into Hipkins' record. He failed in police, crime spiralled. He failed in education, our kids' literacy dropped. And critics argued his vaccine rollout decisions prioritised political considerations.

How is this man more popular than the sitting Prime Minister? How is he even electable?

Luxon needs to make Labour's record toxic. He needs to make the alternative so terrifying that voters back the coalition out of fear, even if they're not thrilled with the current lot.

This should be easy. Labour handed him the ammunition. He just needs to use it.

Stand for something on treaty principles and co-governance

Third, and most importantly, Luxon needs to take a position on the issues that matter to National's base. Treaty principles. Co-governance. The stuff he's spent two years avoiding.

Winston Peters has already done this. He's said the treaty is a three clause document, that the principles are made up by lawyers, and that the government is ditching them. Can you imagine Luxon saying that? I can't. And that's his problem.

He needs to back Winston's move on treaty principles. Not quietly. Loudly. Explain that the government is watering them down, simplifying them, or removing them entirely. Say it clearly: the treaty is the treaty. The principles are legal fiction.

Then go after co-governance. Tell voters you're aware it's spreading through councils and regions, and you're worried about it. Change the Local Government Act to stop unelected iwi members stacking council committees. Take it to Parliament under urgency and pass it in five minutes.

National's heartland is the regions, and the regions are turning against this government because of co-governance. I've been out there. I've heard it. Winston is doing well because he's speaking to that anger. Luxon is drifting, and drifting will drift him out of office.

The reset begins now, or it doesn't happen

This caucus revolt could be the circuit breaker Luxon needs. It's a chance to draw a line under the last two years, restart his leadership, and show he's capable of more than corporate waffle.

But it requires him to change. To listen. To fight. To lead debates instead of following them. Helen Clark led debates. John Key led debates. Even Don Brash led debates. Luxon hasn't.

The opportunity is still there, but so is the risk. If he can't shape the debate, he'll be shaped by it. If that happens, National is done.

I don't think he's got it in him. But no one is beyond redemption. The question is whether he truly wants it and whether he's willing to do what it takes.

He commands the biggest stage in the country. It's time he actually used it.