All Blacks First-Five Debate: Who Is Rennie's Top Option?

OPINION:

Who will be the All Blacks starting first five this year? It’s only the most important position in the team, which makes it the most important playing position in the sport in this country, and right now, it’s completely up for grabs.

There is no clear candidate.

Yes, there are contenders, four good ones in fact, but no one who stands out as being clearly better than the rest. And before you start yelling the name Ruben Love, he’s still a novice at international level. At this stage, he’s potential, and potential only, in the No.10 jersey.

First up, we need a first five for the July tests. These are hugely important matches. They mark the beginning of Dave Rennie’s coaching tenure, tests he won’t want to lose and can’t afford to lose.

Forget all this guff about “building towards the World Cup”. That’s not until October next year. Right now, as the new coach, he’ll want to establish himself by winning. Because that is, and always will be, the All Blacks’ currency - winning.

If you want to be the best in the world again, you’ve got to start beating the rest. And that starts with France, Italy and Ireland, three teams we all know, after watching the Six Nations recently, are quality opponents.

Then it’s South Africa. Eight matches, four of them tests. There’s your time to experiment, four midweek matches. Followed by two Bledisloe Cup tests, where maybe you experiment a little more, then head north again to conclude the Nations Championship.

So who runs the cutter? Who steers the All Blacks ship?

The four candidates are Beauden Barrett, Damian McKenzie, Richie Mo’unga and Ruben Love. I can’t see the No.10 jersey being worn by anyone outside that group.

The younger players, Josh Jacomb, Taha Kemara, Callum Harkin, are all marked for future development. That may or may not happen on the South African tour.

Before I start, let me say this: none of the names I’m about to mention is a perfect choice. The reality is, we don’t have one.

Let’s start with Barrett. You know what you’re getting, loads of experience, but a player who is no longer the player he once was. He’s not the future and shouldn’t be viewed as the starting option for the World Cup next year, when he’ll be 35 and probably sitting on over 150 tests.

Those legs aren’t young enough to win four knockout matches plus a crucial pool game in Australia next year. He’s valuable as a squad member and will definitely be used by Rennie, but we can’t pin our hopes on him. And it’s silly to think we might.

Damian McKenzie then.

As much as I want him to be the guy, he’s not.

We saw again on the weekend how unreliable he can be with clutch kicks. He should have nailed that one against NSW to win the match. But just like in the Super Rugby finals, he misses crucial kicks.

He’s had plenty of opportunities to nail this position down, but against the very best sides he hasn’t been convincing enough for two All Black coaches so far, and I doubt Rennie will be any different.

He’s a great player who, at times, like we saw against Scotland last year, can be a genuine match-winner. But he still lacks the consistency and control to be the first-choice first five.

And this is all on him.

He has all the talent, has had countless chances, but still can’t deliver often enough.

Richie Mo’unga.

Forget the rules and whether he’s eligible, he finishes up in Japan in June and is free to come home. Officially, he’s not available until the end of the year, but if the coach wants him, we all know how quickly the rules can be rewritten.

The issue is this: by the time he gets back, Mo’unga hasn’t played in New Zealand or at the top level for three years. Whatever people say about the competition in Japan, it’s not Super Rugby level. It’s not Top 14 or URC. And it’s nowhere near international rugby.

So how good is he, really? And could he realistically make the jump from Toshiba to the All Blacks after a handful of training sessions?

Let’s also remember his goal-kicking, he’s fallible. He missed a conversion that could have, and should have, put us in the lead late in the 2023 World Cup final in Paris.

And finally, Ruben Love.

He played brilliantly against the Highlanders last Friday. But is that an All Blacks trial? No, of course not.

We all want to see him play the position, and if he can stay injury-free, these next five games for the Hurricanes - Reds, Blues, Chiefs, Crusaders, Brumbies - are as good a test as any.

Yes, he looks like he’s got all the skills and smarts. But we have to see it week in, week out before making that call.

There’s also the argument: “Take a chance. The other guys are older, have had their chances, have all been good, and also average, so why not try the young bloke? He could be another Andrew Mehrtens. How will we know if we don’t give him a go?”

And I get that.

If it were me in Dave Rennie’s shoes, and Love is fit, I’d definitely be playing him in July, maybe starting against Italy, maybe off the bench in the other two.

Because the other three first fives aren’t winning us a World Cup next year.

At those tournaments, it usually comes down to one thing: can you kick your goals?

We need a No.10 who is totally reliable off the boot.

It’s not Barrett. McKenzie misses too often under pressure. Mo’unga has been tried and couldn’t convert when it mattered most.

Sometimes, playing in that position isn’t about who the best player is, it’s about who is best at getting the job done.

The thing is, we already know what each of those guys can and can’t do.

This is a huge decision for Dave Rennie, one of the biggest he’ll have to make early in his tenure.

The more I think about it, the more I come back to this: what have we got to lose by finding out if it could be Ruben Love?

Who is the next All Blacks first five, and could it be the Hurricanes’ Ruben Love?

To win a World Cup, you have to kick goals.

The young ones - Jacomb, Kemara, Harkin, Harry Godfrey… who else?

Will any of them realistically be the All Blacks first five at next year’s Rugby World Cup?